全球通胀是“明显而迫近的威胁”
BIS CALLS FOR HIGHER WORLD INTEREST RATES
英国《金融时报》经济编辑克里斯•贾尔斯(Chris Giles)伦敦报道
2008年7月1日 星期二
国际清算银行(BIS)昨日表示，全球通胀是世界经济面临的一个“明显而迫近的威胁”(clear and present threat)，必须提高利率并制定一个新的框架，以应对未来的信贷及资产泡沫。
该组织在一份措辞强烈的年度报告中警告称，当前金融市场动荡仍可能导致经济严重放缓，因为银行和个人都在竭力减少负债。不断上升的通胀与信贷危机之间的相互作用，“看来确实预示着全球经济放缓的深度和持续时间将超过多数人的预期。”国际清算银行负责协调并促进全球各国央行和银行监管机构之间的合作。
国际清算银行素有“中央银行家的银行”之称，此前，针对过去十年信贷增长和实质利率处于低水平的危险，该行曾多次发出警告。
国际清算银行总裁马尔科姆•奈特(Malcolm Knight)及首席经济学家威廉•怀特(William White)总结到：“这不是凭空想像，而是确实表明低利率可能不知不觉地鼓励了不慎重的借贷行为，并最终导致通胀重新浮现。”马尔科姆和威廉即将卸任，因而这份报告读来有离任报告的意味。
报告批评人们关注于最近的信贷危机有什么不同之处，敦促人们注意“相同点”——信贷的过度增长，以及金融系统使繁荣时期与萧条时期显得更加突出的倾向。
国际清算银行表示，当前迫切需要采取迅速行动的问题，是通胀的持续上升，这意味着全球政策应倾向于少做妥协。
译者/岱嵩
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BIS CALLS FOR HIGHER WORLD INTEREST RATES
By Chris Giles in London, Economics Editor
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Global inflation is a “clear and present threat” to a world economy that needs higher interest rates and a new framework to deal with future credit and asset bubbles, the Bank for International Settlements said yesterday.
In a hard-hitting annual report the organisation, which oversees central banks and banking regulators, warned that the current financial market turmoil still threatened a severe slowdown as banks and individuals struggled to reduce debts. The interaction between rising inflation and the credit crisis “does appear to point to a deeper and more protracted global downturn than the consensus view seems to expect”, the report argued.
Often known as “the central bankers' bank”, the BIS has warned repeatedly of the dangers in the build-up of credit and low real interest rates of the past decade.
In what reads as a valedictory report, Malcolm Knight, its outgoing general manager, and William White, its outgoing chief economist, concluded: “It is not fanciful, surely to suggest that these low levels of interest rates might inadvertently have encouraged imprudent borrowing, as well as the eventual resurgence of inflation”.
The report criticised the focus on what has been different in the recent credit crisis and urged people to look at “what is the same” – excessive credit growth and the tendency of the financial system to amplify good times and bad.
The immediate problem that required rapid action, the BIS said, was rising inflation. This “should imply a bias of global policy towards being much less accommodating”.
